Nuclear Iran-Canada

According to below documents Canada supplies the regime in Iran with nuclear materials. So, when Prime Minister of Canada says shame on Iran, it means give me more money because the price just went up.

Ontario-Iran
Trade Factsheet
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$47,712 $16,604 $49,610 $15,987 $13,232
ONTARIO EXPORTS TO IRAN
Ontario-Iran: Trade Balance
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$58,928 $34,233 $40,111 $41,552 $27,618
ONTARIO IMPORTS FROM IRAN
Ontario-Iran Trade
1997-2001
( thousands o f Canadian dollars)
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Exports Imports
Top 10 Exports 2001 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Pet/Animal Food $1,977
Machinery $1,668
Telephone Equipment/Modems $1,387
Transformers, Static Converters, Inductors $1,294
Machinery Parts $958
Uranium, Other Radioactive Elements, etc. $731
Pharmaceuticals $687
Bovine Semen, Other Animal Products $631
Circuit Switches, Protectors $382
Blood, Blood Preparations $368
Ontario-Iran: Top Exports and Imports
Ontario’s Top 5 Middle East Trade Partners
Israel 0.10%
Saudi Arabia 0.05%
U.A.E. 0.03%
Turkey 0.02%
Kuwait 0.01%
Exports 2001 (% of total exports)
Iran (8th) 0.01%
Israel 0.15%
Turkey 0.06%
Iran 0.01%
U.A.E. 0.01%
Egypt 0.01%
Imports 2001 (% of total imports)
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade
AN AGENCY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ONTARIO, CANADA
Registered to the ISO 9001 Standard
Top 10 Imports 2001 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Fresh/Dried Nuts $8,114
Carpets $6,545
Fresh/Dried Dates, Figs, etc. $1,493
Heterocyclic Compounds $982
Computers and Peripherals $768
Transformers, Static Converters, Inductors $735
Glazed Ceramic Tiles, Cubes, etc. $329
Carbon $262
Preparations of Fruits, Nuts, etc. $243
Fresh/Dried Grapes $4,558
April 2002, Ontario Exports Inc.
www.ontario-canada.com/export

Ontario-Iran
Trade Factsheet
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$47,712 $16,604 $49,610 $15,987 $13,232
ONTARIO EXPORTS TO IRAN
Ontario-Iran: Trade Balance
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$58,928 $34,233 $40,111 $41,552 $27,618
ONTARIO IMPORTS FROM IRAN
Ontario-Iran Trade
1997-2001
( thousands o f Canadian dollars)
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Exports Imports
Top 10 Exports 2001 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Pet/Animal Food $1,977
Machinery $1,668
Telephone Equipment/Modems $1,387
Transformers, Static Converters, Inductors $1,294
Machinery Parts $958
Uranium, Other Radioactive Elements, etc. $731
Pharmaceuticals $687
Bovine Semen, Other Animal Products $631
Circuit Switches, Protectors $382
Blood, Blood Preparations $368
Ontario-Iran: Top Exports and Imports
Ontario’s Top 5 Middle East Trade Partners
Israel 0.10%
Saudi Arabia 0.05%
U.A.E. 0.03%
Turkey 0.02%
Kuwait 0.01%
Exports 2001 (% of total exports)
Iran (8th) 0.01%
Israel 0.15%
Turkey 0.06%
Iran 0.01%
U.A.E. 0.01%
Egypt 0.01%
Imports 2001 (% of total imports)
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade
AN AGENCY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ONTARIO, CANADA
Registered to the ISO 9001 Standard
Top 10 Imports 2001 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Fresh/Dried Nuts $8,114
Carpets $6,545
Fresh/Dried Dates, Figs, etc. $1,493
Heterocyclic Compounds $982
Computers and Peripherals $768
Transformers, Static Converters, Inductors $735
Glazed Ceramic Tiles, Cubes, etc. $329
Carbon $262
Preparations of Fruits, Nuts, etc. $243
Fresh/Dried Grapes $4,558
April 2002, Ontario Exports Inc.
www.ontario-canada.com/export

Ontario-Iran
Trade Factsheet
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$16,604 $49,610 $15,987 $13,232 $18,835
ONTARIO EXPORTS TO IRAN
Ontario-Iran: Trade Balance
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$34,233 $40,111 $41,552 $27,564 $34,465
ONTARIO IMPORTS FROM IRAN
Ontario-Iran Trade
1998-2002
( thousands o f Canadian dollars)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Exports Imports
Top 10 Exports 2002 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Dishwashing/Bottle Processing Machinery $1,683
Stone/Ore Handling Machinery $1,260
Radiation/Electrical Detection Equipment $1,215
Pharmaceuticals $1,204
Electric Welding/Soldering Equipment $760
Pet/Animal Food $683
Medical/Dental X-Ray Equipment, etc. $665
Circuit Switches/Protectors $554
Bulldozers, Graders, etc. $552
Bovine Semen $537
Ontario-Iran: Top Exports and Imports
Ontario’s Top 5 Middle Eastern Trade Partners
Exports 2002 (% of total exports)
Israel 0.11%
Saudi Arabia 0.06%
United Arab Emirates 0.04%
Egypt 0.03%
Turkey 0.03%
Iran (7th) 0.01%
Imports 2002 (% of total imports)
Israel 0.17%
Turkey 0.09%
Iran 0.02%
Egypt 0.01%
United Arab Emirates 0.01%
AN AGENCY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ONTARIO, CANADA
Registered to the ISO 9001-2000
Top 10 Imports 2002 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Knotted Carpets $9,088
Fresh/Dried Nuts $8,017
Flat, Hot-Rolled, Uncoated Iron/Steel $4,626
Fresh/Dried Dates, Figs, Pineapples, etc. $2,103
Heterocyclic Compounds $1,828
Other Heterocyclic Compounds $595
Worked Monumental/Building Stone $523
Other Dried Fruit/Nuts $297
Pickled Vegetables/Fruits/Nuts $261
Fresh/Dried Grapes $2,929
March 2003, Ontario Exports Inc.
www.ontarioexportsinc.com
Publié également en français
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade


Ontario - Iran
Trade Factsheet
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$15,987 $13,232 $18,825 $68,196 $44,795
ONTARIO GOODS EXPORTS TO IRAN
Ontario - Iran: Two-Way Trade
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars
$41,552 $27,567 $34,712 $33,275 $23,855
ONTARIO GOODS IMPORTS FROM IRAN
Ontario - Iran Goods Trade
(1995 - 2004)
(Thousands o f Canadian Dollars)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Exports Imports
Top 10 Goods Exports 2004 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Soybeans $6,425
Medications – prepared for retail use $2,809
Machinery for working rubber & plastic $2,563
Corn (maize) $2,443
Machinery $2,112
Pumps for liquids & liquid elevators $2,009
Interchangeable hand tools $1,993
Self-propelled bulldozers, graders, etc. $1,454
Metal foundry moulding boxes, bases, etc. $1,399
Moving, grading etc. machinery; snow ploughs $1,368
Ontario - Iran: Top Goods Exports and Imports
Ontario’s Top Five Trade Partners
Management Systems Registered to the ISO 9001-2000
Top 10 Goods Imports 2004 (HS4 code) C$ (000’s)
Nuts - fresh/dried $6,166
Grapes - fresh/dried $5,378
Carpets/floor coverings - knotted $5,172
Heterocyclic compounds $699
Fruit, nuts, etc. – prepared/preserved $369
Monument stone – worked $339
Marble, etc. $257
Carpets/floor coverings – woven $247
Chemical products for pharmaceutical use $244
Dates, figs, pineapples, etc. - fresh/dried $1,660
www.ontarioexportsinc.com
May 13, 2005 Ontario Exports Inc. - Source: Industry Canada—Strategis, May 13, 2005
Ontario - Iran Goods Trade
As a Percentage of Total Ontario Goods
Trade
(19 9 5 - 2 0 0 4 )
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Exports Imports
Goods Exports 2004
(% of total goods exports)
United States 90.66%
United Kingdom 1.97%
China 0.65%
Norway 0.56%
Mexico 0.55%
Iran (51) 0.03%
Goods Imports 2004
(% of total goods imports)
United States 69.14%
China 5.55%
Mexico 5.04%
Japan 3.31%
Germany 1.97%
Iran (70) 0.02%
Publié également en français

General Political Environment:
Iran has been an Islamic theocratic republic since 1979. The political system is partially
democratic in that the President and some legislative bodies are popularly elected but the ability
of conservative clerics to bar candidates from contesting elections narrows Iranians’ spectrum of
political choice. Much state power rests with conservative-dominated unelected bodies.
A relatively liberal era in Iranian politics ended in February 2004 when conservatives were swept
into power legislative elections. The previous Majlis (legislature) had been dominated by
reformers but a combination of public dissatisfaction with the government and the fact that many
reformers were not allowed to contest the election made a conservative victory virtually inevitable.
Observers were surprised when the hard-line conservative former mayor of Tehran, by Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad’s won the June presidential run-off election against conservative Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani. Since assuming office, Ahmadinejad has become known for his populist domestic
agenda and a confrontational stance toward the United States and Israel.
Iran and much of the international community are engaged in a three and a half year impasse with
respect to Iran’s nuclear programme. Iranian officials say that the country wants to master the
nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes but the United States and Israel, among others, fear that
Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons and want the programme halted.
On December 23, 2006 the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1737 which
imposed limited sanctions against Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities. A more stringent
set of sanctions (UNSC Resolution 1747) was imposed on March 24, 2007.
On May 23, 2007, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran is continuing
its uranium enrichment activities and, as such, is non-compliant with Resolutions 1737 and 1747.
As a result, pressure for more far-reaching UN sanctions is likely in the near term. In the
meantime, the United States is using unilateral financial restrictions to isolate Iran economically.
Investment Environment:
The much-anticipated Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act (FIPPA) was instituted in
2001. The new law allows for easier repatriation of profits, streamlines approval procedures, and
offers protection against nationalization and expropriation. Furthermore, Iran intends to privatize
a number of state-owned telecommunications and oil enterprises in the near future.
Despite these developments, significant levels of corruption and a complex bureaucracy continue
to underline the challenging nature of Iran’s business climate. Iranian courts are governed by
hard-line clerics and remain opaque, corrupt and very powerful.
US restrictions will further complicate the task of doing business in Iran by drastically curtailing
potential sources of financial intermediation. The United States Treasury department already
forbids US citizens and companies from dealing with two Iranian state-owned banks and it has
indicated that more such directives are imminent. As a result, many commercial banks – most of
which have significant US operations – are terminating their Iran business.
Political Violence:
Since the beginning of the nuclear standoff the possibility of a US military strike against Iranian
nuclear facilities has been mooted. However, the risk of a strike is assessed as low owing to the
operational difficulty of the task and Iranian retaliatory capabilities.
There is a significant risk of anti-foreign protests resulting from the nuclear standoff as evidenced
by the pro-nuclear demonstrations which occurred at the British and French Embassies in 2005.
There has been a growing trend of unrest by marginalized ethnic groups across Iran in the past
few years. This has included violent unrest by ethnic Kurds in the Kermanshah and Kordestan
provinces, ethnic Baluchis in southeastern Sistan va Baluchistan province and Iranian Arabs
centred in and around the city of Ahvaz in oil-rich Khuzestan province.
Economics Iran
High nemployment
& sub idies affect the
outloo .
u
s
k
Source: EIU, EDC Economics Source: Bloomberg
Economic Indicators
01-05 avg. 2006 2007 2008
GDP (%) 5.5 5.8 5.0 4,0
Inflation (% avg.) 14,0 14.6 17.8 15,5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.4 0.0 -4.1 -5.5
Exports (US$bn) 37.9 70.5 76.5 80.3
Imports (US$bn) -29.8 -53.9 -61.3 -65.3
Current Account (US$bn) 5.1 11.4 8.9 8.1
Reserves ( months of imports) 7.0 9.2 10.0 10.4
External Debt (US$bn) 16.2 24.8 24.9 24.7
Debt Service Ratio (due) 4,2 3.2 4.6 4.6
Exchange Rate (to USD; end of year) 8478,9 9357,0 9731,0 10315,0
Market Spotlight: 2006 was a solid year for Iran. GDP growth accelerated. This reflected its
expansionary fiscal policy, which was boosted by a series of oil windfalls. The main trust of economic
policy is to reduce social and regional disparities while creating jobs. However, it has failed to tame
inflation. The hydrocarbon sector needs to be upgraded, but investors are nervous about the UN
sanctions and Iran’s rhetoric. Trade with Iran, which has been affected by the U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1737 that was adopted on December 23, 2006, could face tougher economic sanctions
now that Iran has refused to suspend nuclear activities. Iran’s “Money Laundering Bill” (MLB) has
been finalized after US actions against Bank Saderat & Bank Sepah, which have made it difficult to
do transaction in US$ dollars. Iran decided that oil sales should be paid in Euros. Tehran has been
shifting its foreign-held assets out of dollars since 2003 and has found new trade partners. The Oil
Stabilization Fund (OSF) has been used to finance larger spending & loans to private sector. External
current account surpluses have led to comfortable foreign exchange reserves. External debt
problems are a story of the past. Fitch downgraded Iran rating to “B+”.
Macroeconomic policy: The former administration fostered Iran’s integration in the global economy
while the current leadership wants to reduce social & regional disparities and create jobs. Despite
uncertainty, GDP growth accelerated due to the recovery in agriculture - resulting from better weather
– and the performance of the non-oil sector, but it has been due mainly to larger government
spending. GDP growth rate, which was 5.8% last year, was respectable by historical standards, but
failed to meet the development plan target of 7-8% a year to address unemployment. Every year
about 750,000 Iranians join the labor market. Moreover, to catch up with the rest of the Gulf countries,
Iran will need to upgrade its infrastructure and technology. However, investors are nervous about the
nuclear issue. After an initial stimulus, GDP growth is likely to slowdown during 2007-08. The pursuit
of current policies over the longer run would lead to GDP growth rate falling to 4% a year while
inflation would remain double digits. Thus, the independence of the central bank, elimination of
administrative controls, greater exchange rate flexibility, phasing out of subsidies and reinvigorate the
privatization program are the main structural obstacles to growth and job creation.
Budget/Inflation: Over the short run, Iran can afford to follow its “creative” fiscal “expansionary
policy”. With the help of its Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF) resources, it has been able to bring the
budget “into balance” or to reduce significantly the overall fiscal deficit. Otherwise, it would register a
deficit equivalent to 20% of GDP, excluding oil revenues. Subsidies for energy, food and bank credit
are equivalent to 25% of GDP or US$55bn while energy alone accounts for US$38.5bn. Iran imports
refined oil products and sell them domestically at subsidized prices. Inflation fell in 2005 to 10%, but
has been rising again to about 18% due to the expansionary fiscal policy and economic distortions. In
Iran stimulating economic activity to generate jobs through fiscal and monetary policies have resulted
in persistent double digits inflation, which in turn have undermined the goal of achieving high
sustainable growth rates over the medium term.
External sector: The external position is solid with external current account surpluses that are likely
to be repeated in 2007 and 2008. The external debt and debt servicing are at manageable levels.
Worse come to worse, Iran can repay its external debt obligations tomorrow. Foreign exchange
reserves could be in the area of US$60bn by year-end. Nevertheless, Iran is known to impose “silent
ban” when irritated by trading partners. Iran has signed the IMF Article VIII, which refrain from
imposing restrictions on current account payments. Broader UN sanctions are a standing possibility.
Assuming the pursuit of current policies and average oil prices of US$55 a barrel, the current account
would turn into deficit in five years and foreign reserves would drop to 3 months of imports.
Outlook: Iran can afford to defy UN demands for now. The medium-term outlook depends on key
reforms that would have been facilitated by the current oil windfalls.
Economic
Credit Agencies
Moody’s: N/A
S&P: N/A
Fitch: B+
Nominal GDP (2006)
US$220bn
Population (2006):
68.6 million
Total Trade / GDP:
49.8 %
Currency: Iranian rial
Oil output: 4.1mn b/d; exports
2.5mn b/d; average price US$55.
Exchange regime:
Managed floating
Merchandise imports from
Canada:
Cdn$322mn (2006)
Main sources of Foreign
Exchange (excl. FDI):
Oil exports (78.9%)
Largest Merchandise
Trading Partner:
Japan (17%) Germany (10%)
Main imports:
Intermediate goods (46%);
Capital goods (35%)
Risks to the Outlook
March 2007
JLussier@edc.ca
www@edc.ca
Outlook is better: with
strong oil prices: low
external debt.
Crude Oil Prices
US/bbl
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07


Tehran
Total Area 1,636,000
Currency Rial (IRR)(2006)
Language(s) Farsi
National Holiday 11 February, National Day
Type of State Islamic Republic
Type of Government
Islamic Consultative Assembly ("Majles-e-Shura-ye-Eslami")
Spiritual Leader
Head of State
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei
Head of Government
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Main Political Parties
No political parties are allowed, but there are several recognizable political groupings: Executives
of Construction, Followers of the Imam's Line and the Leader (conservative), Islamic Coalition
Association, Islamic Iran Solidarity Party, Islamic Partnership Front, Militant Clerics Association,
Second Khordad Front (pro-reform), Tehran Militant Clergy Association.
Ministers Foreign Affairs: Manucher Mottaki
Finances Safdar HOSEINI
Chargé d'Affaires, a.i.
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
GDP: (billion) $240.99
GDP per capita: $3,454.19
GDP Growth rate: (%) 5.3
Unemployment: (%)
Inflation: (%) 14.6
km2
Foreign Representation in Canada
Abbas ASSEMI
Chargé d'Affaires, a.i.
Canadian Representation Abroad
James Carrick
Iran Canada
1 CAN$= 8,373.54
n/a
n/a
Canadian Exports to $308,953,849
Canadian Imports from $44,495,450
Iran
Iran
$1,439.27
$44,174.60
2.7
6.3
2
President
Representation:
Economic Information: (2006)
Political Information: